贵州婚姻边缘化男性弱势群体的发展趋势预测

Forecast of the Development of the Marginalization of Marriage about the Men Vulnerable Groups of Guizhou

文章以2000年第五次人口普查资料为基础,从分年龄组人口性别比与人口数量、婚配性别比两个方面预测了2009年、2020年、2030年贵州婚姻边缘化男性弱势群体的发展趋势。2009年贵州婚姻边缘化男性弱势群体已上升至53万人,2020年将增长到96万以上,2030年将增长到127万以上。2009年贵州已跨入中度婚姻拥挤的门槛,2020年将跨入高度婚姻拥挤的门槛。

In this paper,based on the fifth census in 2000,predicted the development of the marginalization of marriage about the men vulnerable groups of Guizhou from the sub-age group sex ratio and population size,mating the sex ratio in 2009,2020,2030.The marginalization of marriage about the men vulnerable groups of Guizhou has risen to 53 million in 2009 and will grow to 96 million or more in 2020 and will grow to 127 million or more in 2030.Guizhou has entered the threshold of moderately marriage squeeze in 2009 and will be into the threshold of high degree marriage squeeze in 2020.