山东省1970—2005年肺癌死亡率变化趋势

Change Trend Analysis of Lung Cancer Mortality during Period of 1970—2005 in Shandong Province

目的分析山东省1970—2005年肺癌死亡率及其变化趋势。方法利用1970—2005年期间的四次全死因调查资料,计算肺癌死亡率和世界人口构成的标化死亡率;利用Joinpoint回归软件计算肺癌死亡率的年均升降速率。结果肺癌世界标化死亡率由1970—1974年的9.95(单位:/10万),增加到2005年的34.88,年均增长速率为3.69%;其中男性则从13.46增加到47.78,年均增长速率为3.62%;女性则从6.59增加到23.31,年均增长速率为5.04%。男性肺癌死亡率高于女性。男女年龄组死亡率曲线变化趋势相同,随着年龄增长死亡率上升。城市肺癌死亡率明显高于农村。结论排除抽样误差后,1970—2005年山东省肺癌死亡率呈上升趋势,位居主要恶性肿瘤死亡率之首位。

Objective To analyze the change trend of lung cancer mortality rates from 1970 to 2005 in Shandong Province.Methods All deaths surveying data from 1970 to 2005 in Shandong Province were collected.The mortality rate of lung cancer and standardized rates by the percentages of world population were calculated.The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the change trends of lung cancer mortality.Results The world standardized mortality rates of lung cancer for male and female increased from 9.95/100 000 in 1970-1974 to 34.88/100 000 in 2005,and the annual percent change（APC） was 3.69%.For male from 13.46/100 000 to 47.78/100 000,and the APC 3.62%; for female from 6.59/100 000 to 23.31/100 000,and the APC 5.04%.The curves of age-specific mortality rates of both male and female were the same trends.The age-specific mortality rates increased with age.The lung cancer mortality rates in cities were significantly higher than that in rural areas.Conclusion From1970 to 2005,the mortality rate of lung cancer in Shandong Province showed an increasing trend constantly with sampling error excluded,and it ranked the first among the major malignant tumor deaths.