南水北调中线水源区供水水文风险因子分析

Research on Hydrological Risk Factors of Water Supply of the Source of Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project

以南水北调中线水源区丹江口水库为研究区域,分析了水源区供水水文风险因子,并利用SWAT模型模拟不同气候变化以及土地利用变化情景下丹江口水库入库径流,同时结合上游区人工取用水和其他调水工程资料,分析了中线水源区的供水水文风险。结果表明,气候变化是导致供水水文风险最主要因子;其次,上游人工取用水及其他调水工程对中线供水水文风险的影响也很明显,但能够实现人为控制;土地利用导致的下垫面变化对中线供水水文风险影响很小。

This paper regards the Danjiangkou Reservoir, the source of the Middle Route Project for the South to North Water Transfer, as the research area. It analyzes the main factor of hydrological risk about water supply. Based on the simulation of the stream flows of the Danjiangkou Reservoir in different climate scenes by using the SWAT model, it analyzes the effects of the climate and land-use changes to the stream flows of the Reservoir. The results show that climate change is the most important risk factor; Second, the effects produced by the water consumption and other water diversion projects of the upper reaches are also very obvious, which can be controlled by human; the changes of land-use can hardly in- fluence the hydrology water risk.