效用理论在飞行安全风险评估中的应用

Application of Utility Theory in the Evaluation of Flight Safety Risk

为科学划分飞行安全风险等级,将效用理论引入飞行安全风险领域,利用效用函数,建立了飞行安全风险评估模型。在分析飞行安全风险的基础上,通过定义事故或危险事件损失效应,选取合适的效用函数进行飞行安全风险的度量。模型有效区分了类似飞行事故这样高损失、低概率事件与飞行事故征候这样低损失、高概率事件风险之间的差异,克服了期望值法的局限性。最后通过实例验证了该方法的科学性和有效性。

In order to divide the rank of flight safety risk scientifically, utility theory is introduced into flight safety risk area to establish evaluation model for flight safety risk by using utility function.Based on analysis to the flight safety risk,we choose a proper utility function to measure the flight safety risk by defining the loss effect of accidents or dangerous events.The model can distinguish the difference of risk between the event such as flight accident with high loss but low probability and the event such as flight incident with low loss but high probability, it can also overcome the limitation of expectancy method.Finally, the scientificity and efficiency of the model is verified by a practical example.