模糊相似产品法与综合评判法结合的柴油机可靠性预计

Combining Fuzzy Similar Product and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method for Reliability Prediction of Diesel Engine

针对工程中柴油机可靠性预计所需数据不足和可信度不高的问题,根据模糊数适于量化模糊信息的特点,运用模糊集和区间分析理论,将模糊数和相似产品可靠性预计法相结合,提出了一种模糊相似产品和模糊综合评判相结合的柴油机可靠性预计方法,并用其对柴油机空气压缩机的可靠度进行了模糊预计。该方法既充分利用了旧机型的可靠性数据,又结合了技术专家的实际经验和决策判断,实现了确定性信息和不确定信息的互补,具有工程实用价值。

To solve the problems such as the insufficiency of the required data and the low credibility in reliability prediction for diesel engine in engineering, this paper utilizes the property of fuzzy number which is suitable for quantifying fuzzy information and combines the fuzzy sets and the traditional similar product method by using fuzzy sets theory and interval analysis. Then it puts forward a new reliability prediction method which combines the fuzzy similar product method and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, which is then used to do the fuzzy prediction on the reliability of the diesel engine＇s air compressor. This method not only makes sufficient use of the reliability data of the old machine type, but also combines the experts＇ practical experiences and judgments. It realizes the mutual complement of the fixed information and the uncertain information. This method has the practical value in engineering.