成都市土地供需关系系统动力学模型研究

System Dynamic Model of Land Supply and Demand in Chengdu

用地供需矛盾影响因素很多,城市土地集约度是其重要的调控指标。将集约度作为土地供应的阀门,建立集约度与供给、需求影响因素之间的反馈关系,进行集约用地约束下的土地供需研究。模型模拟与预测分析结果表明:城市建设用地的供给量由城市土地储备量、城市建设用地供需差、城市总体节约度共同决定。建设用地供给量在储备足够的情况下,由建设用地供需差决定,在低度集约模式下,用地规模过大,用地方式粗放,导致供需出现恶性循环;在过度集约模式下,用地规模虽然得到有效控制,但人均用地面积过低,不利于人与环境的和谐;在适度集约模式下,既满足一定的用地规模又可节约集约用地,是一种较好的发展模式。

There are multiple factors causing the contradiction between land supply and demand.Urban land intensity is a key controlling index,which can be used as a valve to establish the feedback relation between the land use intensity and the factors influencing the land supply and demand and conduct the research of the land supply and demand restricted by intensity index.Through the model simulation and prediction,the results show that the land supply is determined by urban land reserves,quantity discrepancy of land supply and demand,and urban land intensity.With enough land reserves,the land supply is determined by quantity discrepancy of land supply and demand.With lower intensity index,land use and supply will be in a vicious circle because of the excessive and unlimited land scale.With excessive intensity index,although the land scale is under control,land area per capita is too low to ensure the harmony between man and environment.The appropriate intensity index can not only satisfy proper land scale but also economize land use,therefore it is a preferable developing mode.