基于元胞自动机的三江平原湿地景观时空演化模拟研究

Spatial-Temporal Evolution Simulation of Wetland Landscape in Sanjiang Plain Using Cellular Automaton

通过湿地景观时空演化过程模拟,可以揭示景观演替的机制与规律,实现景观的可持续利用,为湿地保护与管理提供决策支持。该文以三江平原典型内陆淡水湿地为实验区,运用元胞自动机技术开展湿地景观变化过程模拟实验,模拟与预测的视觉效果均较好,点对点评价的总体精度达84%以上,验证了元胞自动机在湿地景观时空演化模拟中的可行性与有效性。

Wetlands are extremely valuable natural resources,under double presses of natural factors（such as climate change） and the growing intensity of human disturbance,Chinese wetland area drops sharply,ecological functions degrade obviously,which leading to a series of ecological and environmental problems.Landscape digital reconstruction and temporal-spatial evolution simulation based on multi-period regional land covers can reveal the mechanisms and laws of landscape succession,recognize the relationship between human activities and landscape changes,and predict the future trend of the landscape,then ultimately provide decision support for sustainable use of wetland conservation and management.Cellular Automaton（CA） provides an effective way of simulating and predicting the spatial-temporal evolution of complex geographical phenomena,its key feature is that complex global spatial patterns can be generated by a set of simple local rules.This ′bottom-up′ approach coincides with complexity theories stating that a complex system comes from the interactions of simple subsystems.The inland freshwater wetlands in the Sanjiang Plain is taken for experimental region,experiment of wetland landscape changing process simulation using CA technique is carried out,results show that visual effects of simulation and prediction are both good,and the total accuracy of points to points are also above 84%,which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of wetland landscape spatial-temporal evolution simulation using CA,and provides a new technical idea and method for wetland landscape change and protection research.