计算LNG接收站周转及储备能力的数学模型

Mathematical models of calculating the turnover and storage capacities of a LNG receiving station

科学确定LNG接收站的周转及储备能力、明确LNG储备天数，有助于合理进行LNG接收站战略规划、科学调配LNG船运资源及LNG接收站的储存资源。为此，分析了LNG接收站储备能力的影响因素，针对LNG接收站系统的离散混合特性，将离散事件建模方法中的库存系统模型作为理论依据，结合LNG接收站的供需特点，对经典的库存系统模型进行扩展及调整，建立了LNG接收站周转能力数学模型、库存水平数学模型和储备能力数学模型。上述模型可模拟不同LNG船型、资源地、储罐数量、外输量条件下LNG接收站的储备能力，为优选LNG供需调配方案及船期策略，合理选择船型、安排船期、确定LNG储罐数量提供了参考，对LNG接收站远期规划及功能定位的调整具有指导意义。

To determine the storage capacity and storage days of LNG receiving stations is essential for the decision-makers to make strategic planning of LNG receiving stations and scientific deployment of LNG carriers and the stocks of LNG receiving stations.Therefore,this paper studies the influencing factors on the storage capacity of a LNG receiving station.In view of the mixed discrete feature of a LNG receiving station system,based on the inventory system model in discrete event modeling methods and in combination with the supply and demand features of the LNG receiving station,the classical inventory system model was expanded and modified to establish the mathematical models for the turnover capability,stock level and storage capacity of a LNG receiving station.These modified mathematical models can not only simulate the storage capacities of a LNG receiving station under different conditions like various types of ships,resources places,numbers of LNG tanks,and loading capacity,but provide references for the operators to determine the LNG supply-demand adjustment plan,shipping date strategy,the carrier type,and the number of LNG storage tanks.This study is of great significance to the long-term planning and function localization adjustment of LNG receiving stations.