二十一世纪中国经济周期平稳化现象研究

A Study of the Stabilization of China's Business Cycle in the Twenty-first Century

与20世纪90年代相比,21世纪中国的经济变得更加平稳。通过对国内生产总值产业结构和支出结构的统计分析,以及基于季度数据建立的联立结构宏观经济模型进行分析发现:国内因素包括国内需求冲击的稳定和信贷市场中的自稳定机制是促使21世纪中国经济趋稳的原因;21世纪中国经济波动来自国外需求冲击和国内需求冲击,前者对产出波动的影响更大,后者对物价波动的影响更大;以货币供应量为中间目标的传统货币政策对于稳定产出和物价几乎没有作用,但逆周期的信贷调控政策可能是稳定信贷市场乃至宏观经济的重要工具。

China's economy has become more stable in the twenty-first century than it was in the 1990s.Statistical analysis of the industrial and expenditure structure of China's GDP as well as analysis employing a simultaneous structural macroeconomic model based on quarterly data indicate that domestic factors,including the stabilization of domestic demand shocks and credit markets' self-stabilizing mechanisms,account for the stabilization trend in the Chinese economy in the twenty-first century.Economic fluctuations arise from overseas and domestic demand shocks,with the former having a greater impact on output and the latter a greater impact on price volatility.Traditional monetary policy that takes monetary supply as its intermediate target has almost no effect on stabilizing output and prices but a counter-cyclical credit regulation policy may be an important instrument in stabilizing credit markets and even the macro-economy.