我国城乡居民家庭贫困脆弱性的测度与分解——基于CHNS微观数据的实证研究

Measuring and Decomposing Chinese Households’ Vulnerability of Poverty

脆弱性是对贫困的事前测度,具有前瞻性。本文遵循多数人的做法,将脆弱性定义为未来陷入贫困的概率。为了识别脆弱家庭和群体,探寻其脆弱根源,使用CHNS面板数据,对2638个家庭的脆弱性进行测度和分解,并按城乡、户主年龄和成人受教育程度交叉分组,汇总各子群的脆弱性及分解结果。研究发现:贫困家庭更脆弱,印证了用脆弱性预测贫困的可靠性;65岁以上组和小学组最脆弱,农村家庭更脆弱,可据此进行反贫政策瞄准;脆弱性相近的家庭,脆弱根源并不相同,当前最脆弱群体仍以水平效应为主要根源。

We define vulernability as the probability of a household falling into poverty in the future. To identify the vulnerable households and groups, and find the sources of their vulnerability, we assessed and decomposed the vulnerability of 2638 households, using CHNS panel data. Then we classified the households by ur- ban- rural area, age of the household head, average education of adults, aggrega- ting the vulnerability and decomposition results of different groups. The major find- ing is below： first, the poor households are more vulnerable, confirming the relia- bility of forecasting poverty with vulnerability. Second, households whose head is older than 65 or whose average education of adults is primary school, are the most vulnerable. The rural households are more vulnerable. These results could be used in policy targeting. Third, the sources of vulnerability may be quite different for those with similar vulnerability. Currently, low income is still the main sources of the most vulnerable groups.