东亚现行汇率制度透视及协调路径分析

Current Exchange Rate System of East Asia:Its Survey and Coordination

1997年东亚金融危机之前,东亚经济体的汇率制度主要是采用盯住美元。危机以来,汇率制度仍然没有改变。"害怕浮动"和"原罪论"对这种倾向作出了代表性的解释,但东亚现行的汇率制度确实暴露出许多问题。东亚进行汇率协调的最重要的目标是减少汇率的大幅波动和降低制度成本。为了建立信息透明、相互信任和互助的汇率协调机制,东亚国家和地区应该在现有的"清迈协议"的基础上增加双边互换规模;加快建立和扩充东亚国家和地区的外汇储备库;在此基础上建立亚洲货币基金组织(AMF),提高东亚经济抵抗危机的能力。同时,大力发展亚洲证券市场,提高东亚货币在国际信贷、投资中的地位。使得东亚经济体最优的汇率选择机制从当前盯住美元转向真正的盯住一篮子的汇率制度安排。

Before the financial crisis of eastern Asia in 1997, East Asian economics had followed their cur- rency peg against the US dollar. Since the crisis, the attitude still kept unchanged, for ＂the unpegged in pan- ic＂ and ＂sin theory＂ illustrated such a tendency. However, current exchange rate has many problems, so the goal of its coordination is to reduce wider fluctuation and manufacturing costs. In order to build a clear, trust and complementary mechanism, these countries should increase bilateral scope of currency swap on the basis of ＂Chiang Mai Initiative＂, quicken the establishment of foreign exchange reserve, and further form AMF to improve their resistance against economic crisis. Meanwhile, they should develop Asian securities market to enhance their status in international credit and investment, thereby changing the optimal currency choice from the US dollar pegging to currency basket peg.