概率衰减的另一种解释

New Explanations on Decrease of Probability

朴素的概率衰减论是把逻辑和心理混同的产物,由心理活动中可能存在衰减而推断命题的真假有程度的不同,进而要求或者为了保全真的高程度而少推理,或者为了构造更复杂的理论而放弃真理概念。这种观点对逻辑推演、理论构造和科学发展都是障碍。就命题的真值以及推演的逻辑结构看,它们都是逻辑事件而不是随机事件,因而推理链条越长结论为真的概率越低之说就是语词误用。逻辑方面不存在概率衰减,只有心理方面才可能存在概率衰减。逻辑方面和心理方面尽管事实上不能分割开,但理论上必须有某种程度的区分。

The naive theory of decrease of probability is the product of logical structure and psychological activities,in which the degree of individual＇s belief in propositions downgrades in the process of inference.This point of view in fact impedes the development of logical reasoning,construction of theory and development of science.Truth value and logical structure of inference are logical incidents rather than incidental happenings,thus,it is problematic to conclude that the longer the reasoning process,the lower the probability of the true conclusion.This paper argues that decrease of probability exists in psychology rather than in logic.Logic and psychology are interrelated to each other in reality,however,they should be separated from each other to some extent in theory.