城镇就业人数影响因素分析

The Analysis of Influencing Factors on Urban Employment

就业问题是宏观调控的四大目标之一，由于就业涉及的影响因素众多，仅仅只从数据来判断影响因子是缺乏理论依据的．首先对就业理论做了简单的回顾和综述后，通过对城镇就业人数的时间序列建立GARCH（1，1）模型，得到目标波动受自身特点影响占总原因的31％，而外部因素的冲击占69％的结论．随后，对综述部分定性分析总结的经济指标和劳动指标逐个进行格兰杰因果检验，发现部分宏观经济指标与目标指标间具有相互的因果关系，并且以城镇就业人数作为被解释变量以宏观指标作为解释变量建立VAR模型，发现城镇就业人数受就业总人数、经济活动人数、居民消费支出和固定资产投资影响很大．

Economic growth, full employment and inflation are the most important indicators in macroeconomic regulation. Unemployment is a social and national extremely important phenomenon. Because so many factors are involved in employment, it is not enough to only extract factors from the historical data. At first, we reviewed the research of employment and established the model of GARCH（1,1） to analyze the time series fluctuation of urban employment. After that, we did the Granger causality test between economic indicators and labor indicators one by one. At last, we established the VAR model and discovered the total number of employment, the household consumption expenditure and fixed asset investment have a great impact on the number of urban employment.