山西省农民收入与工业的灰色关联度分析

Grey relation between farmers' income and industry of Shanxi Province in 1998-2007

利用1998-2007年山西省农民收入和工业数据,运用灰色关联理论,研究了农民收入与工业的灰色关联度。结果发现:(1)在1998-2007年,工业与农民收入的关联度为0.823,属于较强关联,工业发展促进农民收入的提高。(2)2004年以后,工业与农民收入的关联度处于下降状态,下降速度为0.063,不利于农民收入提高。(3)轻工业、小企业、制造业比重工业、大中企业、采掘业有利于农民增收。(4)不同工业行业对农民收入组成影响程度不同,非金属矿物制品等产业更有利于促进工资性收入的增加;印刷业和记录媒介的复制等产业更有利于增加家庭经营性收入;专用设备等制造业更有利于增加转移性收入;造纸及纸制品业等制造业更有利于财产性收入的增加。最后,提出了在目前社会发展阶段下,山西省应加大发展工业步伐、发展机制灵活的小企业和具有规模效益的大企业相结合、大力发展制造业与采掘业等措施和加大"以矿补农"力度以促进农民收入增收。

This paper studied the quantitative relation between farms＇ income and industry of Shanxi province by grey relation method with data of farms＇ income and industry in 1998 - 2007. The results show as follows ： （ 1 ） there was a significant grey correlation （0.823） between the farmers＇ income and industry, and the development of industry stimulated the increase of farmers＇ income in 1998 -2007. （2） The trend of grey correlation declined after 2004 with the annual decreasing rate of 0. 063, and that was unbeneficial for farmers＇ income. （3） Light industry, small-size enterprise, and manufacturing were better to the increasing of famers＇ income than heavy industry, larger and medium-size enterprise, mining industry. （4） Different industries had different impacts on the increasing of farmers＇ income;the nonmetal mineral products industry, printing and record medium reproduction industry, special purpose equipment manufacturing industry, and paper making and paper products industry were beneficial for the increasing of the wage-income, family industry-income, transfer-income, and property-income ,respectively. In this paper, we also put forwarded several suggestions, such as, accelerating the development of small-size and large-size enterprise, enlarging the manufacturing and mining industry in order to improve the farmers income in Shanxi Province.