人口出生性别比变动的监测方法研究

Methods of Monitoring the Changes of Sex Ratio at Birth

文章采用国内外人口普查和抽样调查原始数据,从人口学和统计学两个方面研究人口出生性别比变动的监测方法。在人口学监测方法研究过程中,通过实证数据总结人口出生性别比正常情况下出生性别比、分孩次出生性别比和孩次递进生育性别比的基本变动模式与基本特征。在统计学监测方法研究过程中,采用较小样本数据,实证分析人口出生性别比二项分布概率估计和贝叶斯估计方法的有效性,并在此基础上将贝叶斯方法与其他简单统计方法进行比较,证实在小样本条件下,贝叶斯估计可以达到较好的统计监测目的。

Using census and sampling survey data of China and other countries, this paper studies demographic and statistic methods of monitoring the changes of sex ratio at birth. In the demographic approach, the basic character and basic changing pattern of sex ratio at birth, sex ratio by birth order and sex ratio by parity progression are summarized. In the statistic approach, methods of monitoring sex ratio at birth by small sample are summarized. From the simulation, this paper has confirmed that the Bayes method is more suitable than other simple statistic methods to monitoring sex ratio at birth.