摘要
房价与失业率是社会稳定与经济波动的主要振荡源,已引起政府部门的高度关注。文章以香港为例,通过协整分析和VAR模型,对房价与失业率的关联性进行实证检验。结果显示,房价与失业率存在关联,房价对失业率会产生显著影响,且房价对失业率的短期效用为负,长期效应为正;而失业率对房价的影响作用微弱。为维持房价稳定和保证充分就业,政府应采取相应的政策措施。
The housing price and unemployment rate are the main sources of social and economic instability, and thus they have attracted much attention by governmental departments. Using the co-integration analysis and VAR models, this paper tests the nexus between the housing price and unemployment rate in Hong Kong. The results showthat there exists a correlation between them. Housing price has a significant impact on the unemployment rate and such effect is negative in a short-term but positive in a long-term. In order to maintain price stability and to ensure full employment, the government should take some relevant policy measures.
出处
《中国人口科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2010年第4期96-103,共8页
Chinese Journal of Population Science
