农业土地利用变化的人工社会模型研究

Application of Artificial Society Model to Study of Land Use Change

人工社会作为复杂性科学研究的一个分支,在近年来得到了较快的发展,已呈现出向各个研究领域渗透的趋势。探讨了人工社会在土地利用变化研究领域的应用,并创建了一个土地利用变化的人工社会模型(LUC-ASM)。该模型以农户和农民为两类agents,模拟不同社会、经济条件和不同政策影响下,农户和农民个体对自己承包的土地利用决策上的变化,进而从整体上揭示一些有价值的现象和规律。实例分析结果表明,该模型可以较好地反映土地利用变化的过程及各种社会经济因素的影响效应,有助于深化我们对人与自然环境相互作用的认识。

Artificial society model,a branch of complexity science,has gained rapid applications in recent years,exhibiting a trend of infiltrating into many research fields.An artificial society model for land use change （LUC-ASM） was developed with a purpose of examining the applicability of the approach in the field of natural resources management.In LUC-ASM,farm families and farmers were chosen as active agents,and the process of their land use change with different conditions of socio-economy and policies were simulated.Some useful emerged phenomena and characteristics could be found from micro to macro scales in the evolution process.The outcomes of this study demonstrate that by simulating the process of land use change from bottom-up,LUC-ASM provides a reasonable explanation on the emerged macroscopic effects of various socio-economic factors such as policies and land rights.This model can be used to help us understand the interaction between human and natural environment from an evolutionary perspective.