摘要
Non-linear programming analysis suggests that employment effects of minimum wage regulation are the result not only of the regulation itself but also of the external regulatory environment. At a certain level, the regulatory environment intensifies the effect on employment of minimum wage regulation. Empirical studies based on survey data from 439 enterprises in Guangdong and Fujian show that minimum wage rises had a greater impact on the employment of rural migrant workers in 2008 than in 2007, although no significant change was observed among workers who were permanent urban residents. Further analysis shows that the greater impact on migrant workers derives mainly from the strengthened regulatory environment brought about by the Employment Contracts Law. The permanent urban workforce has not been similarly affected because their interests have been given priority under the dual employment system. This reminds us that the employment effects of the Employment Contracts Law may be realized indirectly through other regulatory measures, including strengthened minimum wage regulation.
非线性规划分析表明,最低工资管制的就业后果不仅取决于最低工资管制本身, 还取决于外部监管环境,当监管环境强化到一定程度时,最低工资管制的就业冲击会扩大。基于粤闽两省439家企业调查数据的实证分析表明,2008年提高最低工资标准对农民工的就业冲击明显强于2007年,但对城镇劳动力没有造成明显强化的冲击。进一步分析证明,农民工就业冲击的扩大主要源于《劳动合同法》引起的监管环境的强化,而城镇劳动力就业冲击没有扩大主要源于二元就业制度对城镇劳动力利益的优先保护。这提醒我们,《劳动合同法》对就业的影响很可能会通过强化最低工资管制等其他管制措施的效果来间接实现。
基金
the National Natural Science Foundation sponsored project, "The Employment Effects of Labor Regulation on Rural Migrant Workers and Administrative Policies: With a Focus on Minimum Wage Rises" (劳动规制对农民工的就业影响及管理政策研究:以提高最低工资标准为例)
sponsored by the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine and the Renmin University of China, "The Impact of Foreign Technical Measures on China’s Export" (国外基础性贸易措施对我 们出口的影响)
