热带气旋与台风气候变化研究进展

Review on Climate Changes of Tropical Cyclones and Typhoons

近年来，引起严重灾害的热带气旋和台风气候变化研究均有新的进展：近60年观测资料比对表明，由于海上观测手段不足，造成前期资料可靠性较低，近30-40年资料较为可靠，观测资料的可靠性随热带气旋强度的增强而增加；全球6个洋区观测资料计算分析显示，热带气旋存在多年代际变率，约自1970年以来，强和超强热带气旋活动有增强趋势；统计和动力降尺度方法模拟热带气旋频数和强度与观测检验证实，这些方法具有一定的模拟热带气旋的能力，但尚存比较大的不确定性；利用统计和动力降尺度模型及模式考虑21世纪人类排放增加全球变暖，较为一致地预估西北太平洋和北大西洋强台风（飓风）强度和频数都有可能增强。热带气旋和台风均属于给人类带来巨大灾难的极端气候事件，利用目前的统计和动力降尺度方法很难进行较为准确的未来年以上时间尺度的气候预测和预估，尚需对影响因子和预测与预估方法进行更加深入的研究，进一步减小预测和预估的不确定性。

This paper reviews recent advances on studies of the climate changes related with tropical cyclones and typhoons that would cause severe disasters. Several key points are identified in this paper. As shown by the comparisons of the observed data of the tropical cyclones and typhoons during the last 60 years, the reliability of the earlier data is lower than the later ones, that is, what observed during the last 30 to 40 years. The reliability increases with the intensity of tropical cyclones. The results as calculated by the observed data on six Oceans indicate that the multi-decadal variability of tropical cyclones and typhoons does exist. The intense tropical cyclone activity has increased since about 1970. Besides observations, both statistical and dynamical downscaling methods can to a certain extent simulate the tropical cyclones and typhoons, but with large uncertainties. Most multi-dynamical and statistical models considering increased human emissions and global warming give a consensus of prediction that the strong typhoons （hurricanes） over the northwestern Pacific Ocean （North Atlantic Ocean） are likely to enhance by the end of the 21st century. The tropical cyclones and typhoons as the extreme climate events would cause huge damages to mankind. It is difficult to make the climate predictions exactly by using the present dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. The further investigations on the impact factors and prediction methods should narrow the uncertainties.