水安全内涵及其评价研究——以三峡库区万州为例

Research on the connotation and assessment of water security——Take Wanzhou district of Three-gorge Reservoir as an illustration

本文讨论水安全的内涵,提出内容、目标和时间水安全三维概念模型,认为在水安全目标与时段确定前提下对水安全三要素(水资源安全、水环境安全、水生态安全)的研究是水安全评价的主要内容,是确定安全水平的核心要素。本文构建水安全评价指标体系、确立评价方法与评价标准,对三峡库区万州进行现状评价,并采用常规发展与优化发展两情景模拟对比的方法对其未来的水安全趋势进行预测评价。评价结果显示:现状水安全处于一般状态;常规发展情景下水安全水平日趋下降,优化发展情景下水安全逐步趋于良好达到理想。治理水土流失、控制污染物的排放、提高社会经济用水效事将是万州区水安全保障的主要途径。

In this paper, connotation of water security is discussed and three dimention concept model is put forward on the basis of content, goal and time. On the precondition of determinate goal and time, water resource security, water environmental security and water ecology security are the main part of water security assessment, and this three elements of water security are also the core factors to determine the level of water security. Based on the connotation of water security, the assessment indicator system of water security, the assessment methed and standard are put forward. Further more, the present water security is assessmented, and future water security is assessmented by using scene analysis method. Integrated present assessment result showed that the water security is general, and future assessment result showed that the water security of general development scene is decline while the optimize development scene＇s is well. In the future, restoring the loss of soil and water, controlling the pollution discharge and raising socioeconomic water use efficiency are the main approaches to improve water security level of Wanzhou district.