资本投入、耕地保护、技术进步与农村剩余劳动力转移

Capital Input,Infield Protection,Technology Advancement and Farmer Labor Migration

工业化对于一个国家或地区经济腾飞的重要性,已经被西方发达国家的经验和走过的道路所证实。在实现工业化的过程中,农村劳动力转移是世界各国都曾经或必将面对的重要课题。农村剩余劳动力转移既是我国实现持续经济增长必须面对的重大课题,也是解决我国"三农"问题的重要途径。本文的动态模型和基于1978-2008年中国数据的实证分析表明:较多的农村劳动力数量和较少的土地资源禀赋是促进我国农村剩余劳动力转移的原始动力和内在根本原因,而大量的农村劳动力转移到非农产业或城镇,使得农民耕种土地的积极性下降,农地荒芜现象严重,不利于农业的可持续发展,甚至会影响到我国的粮食安全;农业资本投入对农村劳动力转移数量影响显著,增加农业资本投入,既能促进农业的发展,又能促进我国农村劳动力转移;农业技术进步对农村剩余劳动力转移既有正效应,也有负效应,两个效应相互作用或抵消,使得农业技术进步对我国农村剩余劳动力的影响并不显著。本文的研究结论所蕴含的启示是,中国在选择经济发展路径时,应该考虑本国的要素禀赋结构,特别是要充分利用本国富裕的农村剩余劳动力资源。

Rural surplus labor migration is not only the major issue that we are facing to maintain the sustainable economic growth but also the essential way to solve ＂three issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers＂ in China. The dynamic model and empirical analysis based on data from 1978 to 2008 in this paper show that the conflict between larger number of rural workforce and less land resources endowment is the basic cause that leads to rural surplus labor migration. However, the large number of rural surplus labor moving to non - agricultural industries or cities and towns reduces farmers＇ enthusiasm to cultivate the land, degrades productivity of agricultural land, restricts sustainable development of agriculture, and even threatens china＇ s food security. Coefficient between the numbers of capital investment in agriculture and rural surplus labor migration is significantly positive. This indicates that the increase in investment can not only accelerate agricultural development but also stimulate rural surplus labor migration. Advancement in agriculture technology has both positive and negative effects on rural surplus labor migration. The counteraction and interaction between these two effects make advancement in agriculture technology slightly affect the migration. This paper draws conclusion that factor endowment structure should be taken into account when we choose the approach of economic development in China, especially taking full advantage of China＇ s rich labor resources.