我国宏观经济政策效应的模拟分析——基于季度宏观经济联立方程模型

Simulation Analysis of the Effects of Macroeconomic Policies in China——Based on a Simutaneous Equations Model of China's Quarterly Macroeconomy

将宏观经济中各主要因素归入商品市场、金融市场、劳动市场、价格和国外影响五个子模块,通过各模块及要素间的相互联系勾勒出我国经济运行的理论架构,并利用1999年一季度至2009年一季度的季度数据,采用动态建模方法建立了刻画我国宏观经济运行特征的联立方程模型;在此基础上运用情景模拟对各宏观经济政策方案的效应进行分析,结果表明,积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策可有效地缓解金融危机冲击、保持经济的平稳增长,且财政政策的效果明显优于货币政策;进而指出我国下一步宏观经济政策的选择和提高货币政策有效性的必要性和切入点。

Attributing all the basic influencing factors on China＇s macroeconomy to five sub-modules,i.e.,commodity market,financial market,labor market,pricing and international impact,a framework was built revealing China＇s economical running via the interconnections between the sub-modules and influencing factors.Based on the economical data from 1999Q1 to 2009Q1,a simultaneous equations model was done to characterize the macroeconomic running by using dynamic modeling approach.Then,the scenario simulation was applied to analyzing the effects of macroeconomic policies.The results showed that the active fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy both can effectively mitigate the impact due to financial crisis and maintain the steady economical growth,where the active fiscal policy functions obviously better than the monetary policy.The necessity to choose the macroeconomic policies in next step and improve the efficiency of monetary policy is explained with the appropriate intervening point proposed.