法律决策中事件结果对后见偏差的影响

The Effect of Event Outcome on Hindsight Bias in Legal Decision Making

初步探讨法律决策中不同事件结果对后见偏差的影响。实验采用单因素三水平(中立结果组、积极结果组、消极结果组)被试间设计。采用自编的两个案例及问卷测查不同事件结果中后见效应的差异。实验结果发现,模拟法官在事件消极结果情境下对案件做出的决策比中立结果情境下所做的案件决策产生出了更大的后见偏差,而在事件积极结果情境下所做出的决策结果则出现了更少的后见偏差。

To study the effect of different event outcomes on hindsight bias in legal decision making, the experiment adopted the single factor between-subjects study design with triplex levels （neutral outcome group, tx^sitive outcome group and negative outcome group） and investigated the difference of hindsight bias in legal decision making in different event outcome situations with self-made questionaires of two law cases. As revealed in the experiments, the participants, who acted as mock judges, had greater hindsight bias in legal decision making in a negative outcome situation than in a neutral outcome situation, but had leas hvindsight bias in a positive outcome situation.