Identification of Potential Sites of Debris Flows in the Upper Min River Drainage,Following Environmental Changes Caused by the Wenchuan Earthquake

The Wenchuan earthquake caused numerous landslides and collapses that provide abundant unconsolidated material for future mobilization as debris flows.Debris flows will be very active and cause considerable damage for some time in the affected area.Because of environmental changes related to the earthquake,many potentially dangerous debris flow gullies have yet to be identified.This paper selects the upper Min River from Yinxiu to Wenchuan as the study area,interprets the unconsolidated deposits,and discusses their relationship to distance from the fault.Then,applying that information and the values of other factors relating to debris flow occurrence,the locations of potential debris flows are analyzed by multi-factor comprehensive identification and rapid identification.The multi-factor comprehensive identification employs fuzzy matter-element extension theory.The volume of unconsolidated material in the study area is about 3.28 × 108 m3.According to the analysis by multi-factor comprehensive identification,47 gullies have a high probability for potential debris flow,8 gullies have a moderate probability,and 1 gully has a low probability.