能源效率与中国经济增长关系研究

Energy Efficiency and Economic Development Gap in China

能源是经济增长的主要动力,对经济增长有拉动作用,同时,经济的增长又影响着能源的消费。对中国能源消费与经济增长关系进行了分析,考虑了各种主要能源消费与经济增长的关系,基于1995～2007年中国经济增长、能源消费总量等年度统计数据,分析比较了全国及三大区域的全要素能源效率,在此基础上利用时间序列模型对其相互影响进行了计量分析,结果表明中国的能源和经济增长存在双向因果和长期协整关系。基于此,西部能够缩小和东部地区经济差距的最优路径就是使自身经济更开放,突破路径依赖和锁定效应,建立从以制造业为核心逐渐向服务业为核心转移的长期经济发展体制。

Energy is one of the major powers for the economic development,which has the important improvement effect to economic development.Based on the theoretic foundation,this paper researches into energy efficiency and economic development in China,thinks about major relations between energy efficiency and economic development and uses the statistical data of economic development,energy consumption and so on in China from 1995 to 2007,analyses and compares the TFP energy efficiency among three regions and the nation in China.Using the time series model to analyze the relational influences,this paper thinks that there exists the bidirectional cause and effect and long-term cointegration relations between the energy and the economic development in China.Therefore,the result is that if China wants to reduce the economic development gap between the eastern region and the western region,improve the energy and production efficiency and establish the sustainable development system,the best way is that China shall make more openness,break through the road dependence and lock-in effect,and establish the second industry as the development core in the middle period and transfer to the third industry in a long period.