江苏省入境旅游市场时空动态变化研究

Researches on the Time and Spatial Dynamic Changes of Inbound Tourism in Jiangsu Province

采用江苏省1978—2006年入境旅游面板数据,基于旅游需求的角度,运用地理集中指数、年际集中指数、亲景度等指标对江苏省入境旅游市场的时空变化特征进行了分析。结果表明,江苏省国际游客地理集中指数整体呈下降趋势;各客源国的年际变动指数差异较大;入境客源市场亲景度差异并不显著;客流空间集聚和不均衡特征仍较明显。建议从市场、产品开发及客流空间调控等方面进一步拓展江苏省入境旅游市场。

The inbound tourism is the important part of the tourism in our country which is always subjected to a research field by scholars.As a big province of inbound tourism,Jiangsu has an important position in the development of international tourism in our country.The paper adopts the panel data of inbound tourism from 1978 to 2006 in Jiangsu Province,from the perspective of the tourist demand,uses the indicators such as geographic concentration index,year border concentration index,the preference scale and etc.,to analyze the characteristics of the time and spatial dynamic changes of inbound tourism in Jiangsu Province.The results show that the geographic concentration index is being present to a descendent trend,the year fluctuation index of every source country is much different,the preference scale of inbound tourism market is not outstanding,and the space-concentration and unbalanced characteristics are still obvious.Finally,the author proposes some suggestions,including market development,product development,the space structure adjustment of tourist flow and etc.,to promote the inbound tourism market in Jiangsu Province.