农业天气风险与中国农村贫困的实证研究

An Empirical Study about the Relationship between Agricultural Weather Risk and Rural Poverty in China

农业天气风险对农业生产和农民生活产生日益严峻的破坏性影响,导致一部分农村人口致贫或因灾返贫。利用1978—2007年的时间序列数据,实证分析了农业天气风险与我国农村贫困的关系。研究表明,贫困发生率与成灾面积占播种总面积的比例及农业GDP占国内生产总值的比例呈正相关关系;贫困发生率与有效灌溉面积及农民人年均纯收入呈负相关关系。最后在实证分析的基础上,对如何降低农户脆弱性、增强农民的抗灾能力以缓解贫困提出了相应的对策建议。

The agricultural weather risk has increasingly severe devastating effects on agricultural production and farmers＇ living,and it results in rural population partly entering or returning to the poor.This paper empirically analyzes the relationship between agricultural weather risk and China＇s rural poor through the 1978—2007 time-series data.The study shows the relationship between the incidence of poverty and related variables is close.Based on the empirical analysis,the paper finally brings forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions on how to reduce the farmers＇ vulnerability and enhance their response capacity to weather risk.