俄罗斯油气资源依附型经济论析

Analysis on Russian Economy Dependent on Oil and Gas

尽管1999年后俄罗斯的经济增长是内需而非投资主导的,但俄仍然是出口矿产资源、进口机器等工业制成品和食品的单一经济模式的发展中国家,其经济增长受出口大宗商品的国际市场价格和汇率变化的影响较大。无论从名义GDP还是从实际GDP来看,油气产业对俄罗斯经济增长的贡献率都很大。俄罗斯制造业的竞争力依然很低。因此,俄罗斯经济是一种油气资源依附型经济。俄罗斯政府对国内市场的天然气价格实施管制,在一定程度上减轻了"荷兰病"的进一步发展。来自油气产业的税收大幅增加使俄财政收入由赤字转为盈余。俄政府为此设立了稳定基金,在抑制通货膨胀的同时偿还了外债。从2008年起,俄在引入油气收支或油气外收支等概念基础上开始实施新的预算编制和执行制度。稳定基金因此转化为储备基金和下一代基金。俄经济的长远发展取决于如何减轻"荷兰病"的影响以及通货膨胀的压力。

Though Russian economic growth after 1999 is not investment-driven but domestic demand-driven,Russia is still a developing country characterized by mono-economic pattern which exports mineral resources and imports manufactured goods and food.Therefore,its economic growth is greatly influenced by the fluctuation of export prices and exchange rates.From the perspectives of both its nominal and real GDPs,the oil and gas sector contributes significantly to the economic growth while Russian manufacturing industry is less competitive.Russian economy remains heavily dependent on oil and gas sector.Some energy prices,such as natural gas,are regulated by the government,which makes less apparent the ＂Dutch Disease,＂ and the Russian fiscal situation went from deficit to surplus due to the revenues from the oil and gas sector.The Stabilization Fund was established with the main purpose of controlling and minimizing inflation.From 2008,a new budget system has been introduced accompanied by the formation of a new conception of ＂oil-and-gas balance＂ and ＂non-oil-and-gas balance,＂ which resulted in transformation of the Stabilization Fund into the Reserve Fund and Future Generations Fund.Further development of Russian economy will significantly depend on how to reduce the impact of the ＂Dutch Disease＂ and how to control inflation.