宏观经济景气波动对就业增长的影响

The impact of Macro economic climate volatility on employment growth

中国不成熟的市场经济和特殊的人口环境使得用就业弹性和奥肯定律均无法有效反映我国经济增长与就业关系,更无法刻画经济波动对就业的冲击。本文从宏观经济景气波动影响就业增长的三个路径:劳动力供给、劳动力需求和政府公共就业政策来建立系统的分析模型,以探析经济波动与就业增长的长期均衡关系和滞后冲击效应。在劳动力供给系统中,经济波动使经济活动人口增多,加快了就业增长;在劳动力需求系统中,经济波动不利于经济增长,从而不利于劳动力需求增长;在政府就业促进政策系统中,社会保障和就业的投入缓和了经济波动对就业增长的冲击。

China＇s complex economic background and demographic background lead to employment elasticity and Okun＇s Law can not reflect the relationship between economic growth and employment in China, and can not describe the impact of economic fluctuations on employment. In this paper, we consider the impact of economic fluctuations to employment growth in the three paths： labor supply, labor demand and the governmerit to create employment. We design three systems model, to find out long-term equilibrium relationship be- tween economic fluctuations and employment growth, and the lagged impact effects. In the labor supply sys- tem, the economic fluctuations of the economically active population increased, employment growth has accel- erated; in labor demand system, the economic volatility is not conducive to economic growth and demand for labor is not conducive to growth; employment promotion system in government, social security and employment inputs to ease the economic impact of fluctuations on employment growth.