近30年来乌鲁木齐河流域冰川波动特征与流域高山带升温幅度的估算

ON THE CHARACTERISTICS OF GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS DURING THE LAST 30 YEARS IN URUMQI RIVER BASIN AND THE ESTIMATION OF TEMPERATURE RISE IN THE HIGH MOUNTAIN AREA

乌鲁木齐河流域典型冰川与全流域其他冰川波动的监测结果表明，５０年代末与６０年代初以来，各冰川均处于全面退缩状态，且冰川长度退缩量、面积和冰储量减小量与冰川的规模有密切的关系，大冰川退缩量大，但退缩量所占百分比较小，小冰川则相反，而且三者与冰川的长度等级有较好的统计关系。在区域上有更多的冰川波动资料时，可以通过优化这种统计关系用于推断无观测资料冰川在过去数十年中的波动情况，为评估区域冰川资源变化提供快捷的方法。计算说明，流域冰川全面退缩量值相当于乌鲁木齐河流域高山带在过去３０年中气温升高了０．３５±０．２７℃。

Based on field observations and repeated photogrammetry, representative glacier and all the other glaciers in the Urumqi River basin have experienced definite shrinkage since the end of 1950s and the beginning of 1960s. It's found that the decreases in length, area and ice volume of glaciers show a close relationship with their dimensions, that is, the larger the glaciers, the bigger their retreats and vise versa. Analysis indicates that statistical relations can be established for the absolute and relative changes in length, area and volume of glaciers against with their lengths, which can be adapted to glaciers in other mountainous regions, if we conduct some supplementary measurements of glacier fluctuations. With this concept, an evaluation can be made for glacier fluctuations in a regional scale. Further calculation demonstrates that glacier shrinkage in the last 30 years corresponded to an air temperature rise of about 0.35±0.27℃ in the high mountain region of the Urumqi River.