中美经济“脱钩”还是“挂钩”

Is China Coupled With or Decoupling From the U.S.Economy?

本文采用多元GARCH模型,从实体经济和虚拟经济实证研究中美经济关联性。我们发现,中美实体经济既"挂钩",又"脱钩"。一方面,从总体趋势看,两国实体经济的关联越来越紧密;另一方面,两国实体经济并不总是那么紧密,经济运行的风险会促使两国加深两国经济的联系。在投资、物价、贸易、就业等方面,出口是导致中美两国实体经济出现"挂钩"趋势的主要因素。中美虚拟经济方面不仅没有"脱钩",而且从长期看越来越紧密的趋势明显。

The paper adopts Multivariate GARCH model to study the correlations between the Chinese economy and the US economy. It investigates not only the real economy, but also the virtual economy. We find that the real economies of China and the US are both coupled with and decoupling from each other. Firstly, in view of the general trend, the two countries are increasingly associated with each other in real economy. Secondly, the two economies are not always so close, and sometimes it is the risks faced by both economies that help tighten the relations between the two. Export is the most important factor re- suiting in the trend of coupling between the real economies in the two countries. It also can be found that the virtual e- conomies of China and the US are not decoupling from each other either. Instead, there is an increasingly apparent trend for the two to get closer in a long run.