东北地区中老年矿业城市经济系统脆弱性

Analysis on Vulnerability of the Economic System of Middle and Old Aged Mining Cities in Northeast China

基于对脆弱性的认识和理解,通过构建脆弱性评估模型,运用主成分分析法和熵值法相结合方法对东北地区矿业城市经济系统的脆弱性进行评价,找出其脆弱性的影响因素和作用机制。评价结果表明:经济系统脆弱性高的矿业城市主要集中分布于黑龙江省;不同矿产资源类型的矿业城市经济系统脆弱性指数平均值具有煤炭类>综合类>冶金类>油气类的趋势;矿业城市经济系统脆弱性随着其生命周期的推进逐渐增大;经济系统面对资源枯竭、国有企业改革等扰动的敏感性对决定其脆弱性程度作用更为显著。最后从产业结构、所有制结构、规模结构、组织结构、技术结构、投资结构、区位条件等方面的优化和调整来降低经济系统的脆弱性,实现城市经济的可持续发展。

Based on the knowledge and understanding of vulnerability,this article constructed a vulnerability assessment model,combining entropy value method and principal component analysis,and made a study on the vulnerability of the economic systems of mining cities in Northeast China,to discover the influencing factors and the functional mechanisms.The results indicate that most mining cities with high vulnerability are spatially concentrated in Heilongjiang Province.The mean vulnerability scores of mining cities for different mineral resources have a descending trend of coal resources integrated mineral resources metal resources petroleum resources.The vulnerability scores have a tendency to increase with the development of mining citys.The sensitivity to the gradual depletion of regional mining resources and the State-owned enterprise reforms has more remarkable influence on the degree of vulnerability of mining cities.Finally,by considering the industrial structure,ownership,size scale,organizational structure,technological structure,investment structure and locational capacity,optimization and adjustment are made to reduce the vulnerability of economic systems and to achieve the sustainable development of urban economy.