中国城市人口密度分布模型研究进展及展望

Population Density Functions of Chinese Cities:A Review

城市人口密度分布及模拟是城市空间结构、郊区化研究中的重要内容。经济学和区域科学学者对城市人口密度分布模型研究文献很多,揭示了发达国家城市人口分布经历了从单中心到多中心的演变。本文从单中心城市和多中心城市2种研究假设,梳理了中国城市人口密度模型研究进展。从已有研究看,中国城市人口密度模型的研究主要集中在对北京、上海等个别大城市的研究上,多为个案研究。这些研究表明中国城市人口密度分布存在共性特征:①单中心人口密度模型能够较好的描述中国的紧凑性的城市人口分布;②负指数函数在模拟中国城市人口密度时有较好的优度;③同国外相关研究结论一致,中国城市的人口密度模型中,人口密度梯度逐渐变小,密度曲线变得更为平缓。④多中心模型研究表明,部分大城市的人口密度分布已经符合多中心模型分布特征,大城市次中心已经初步发育。纵观中国城市人口密度模型的研究,发现存在数据质量差、研究方法滞后、研究城市少、可比性差等问题,针对这些问题,提出应该在未来应努力利用GIS等提高数据质量,创新研究方法,对中国城市密度模型研究进行更深入的研究,加强比较研究,从而构建中国城市密度模型的相关理论,进而推动中国城市空间结构及郊区化研究。

Researches on distribution and modelling of urban population density exist vastly in English literatures in the discipline such as urban economics,regional science and urban study.Substantive studies reveal that as urban develops,distribution of urban population density evolves from monocentric to polycentric,and functions which can describe urban population density also vary from simple negative funcitons to modern complicated functions.In recent years,researches on population density function of Chinese cities enriched.Most studies focus on large cities like Beijing and Shanghai.Some conclusions from those studies are consistent with the findings from foreign cities.（1） Monocentric population density functions can describe population density distribution of Chinese cities well.（2） The expontenial denstiy function also fits the population densiy distribution in most chinese cites.（3） The density gradient is getting small and the city-center intercept drops over time.（4） Multicentric functions can fit the density distribution in some big cities like Beijing and Shanghai.Those findings reveal that population suburbanization of Chinese cities develops rapidly,and the spatial structures of Chinese cities experience great changes from compact to decentralized.Studies on Chinese cities have some shortcomings.Most studies are confronted with poor quality data.There are fewer studies on cities.In the future studies,GIS should be applied to obtain high quality data,and research method should be enriched.Comparable studies or regional studies should also be launched.