中国房地产业发展趋势和商业银行的长期策略

The Development Trend of Chinese Real Estate Industry and Commercial Bank's Long-Term Strategy

目前房地产已成为中国经济的支柱产业,同时资金流量分析表明房地产又不应成为主导产业。长期来看,城市化、人口增长和存量需求释放等刚性和扩张需求,将推动中国房地产行业持续发展,短期内价格暴涨和长时间涨速过快是不合理的。中国房地产市场短期内出现严重衰退的可能性不大,银行面对的风险仍然可控,但仍需注意政策调整的风险。商业银行仍应将房地产市场作为重要业务领域,有重点、有区别拓展;适度控制房地产贷款增速、总量及占比;建立对房地产贷款的全过程监管制度;探索房地产贷款以外的金融创新形式。

Currently, real estate becomes a pillar industry in China＇ s economy, while the analysis of fund flow shows that it should not be a leading industry. In the long term, the rigid and expansing needs, resulting from the urbanization, the growth and stock of population, will promote the continuous development of Chinese real estate industry. Price inflation in a short time and price rising too fast in a long time are unreasonable. In the short term, it is unlikely that Chinese real estate market will experience a serious recession. The risk faced by bank is still controllable, but the risk of policy change should be paid attention to. Commercial banks should still regard the real estate market as important business and implement focused and differentiated development. Commercial banks should also appropriately control the growth, total amount and proportion of real estate loan, establish the monitoring system of the whole process of real estate loan, and explore financial innovation other than real estate loan.