DDM模型不确定性与银行投资者关系管理

The Uncertainties of DDM Approach and Bank's Investor Relations Management

对银行股基本价值的判断是银行投资者关系管理部门与投资者沟通的基础。目前全球投资者通用三阶段DDM现金流折现模型进行银行股估值,该模型是通过预测银行未来现金流和终值折现加总后得到银行内在价值的分析方法。在实际应用中,对折现率、每年现金流、终值和银行ROE等不确定性变量的预测影响着对银行长期价值的判断。投资者关系管理部门应在经济运行和银行客观经营基础上,理解银行估值模型的不确定性,从而与投资者进行有效沟通,保持资本市场对这些不确定性因素的合理判断,引导资本市场从长期价值投资角度理解银行。

The judgment on the value of a bank＇s shares is the foundation for a bank＇s IRs team to communicate with investors. At present, global investors commonly apply a three-stage DDM （Dividend Discount Model） approach to forecast a bank＇ s value, a model that obtains a bank＇ s internal value by adding the present values of the bank＇ s future cash flows and terminal value. The forecasting result through this model is practically subject to some variables such as discounted rate, annual cash flows, terminal value and the bank＇s ROE. A bank＇s IRs team should fully understand the uncertainties of DDM on the basis of economy mechanisms and a bank＇ s operation situation to effectively communicate with investors, contribute to the rational judgment of capital market on the uncertainties and instruct capital market to understand the value of banks from the perspective of long-term value investment philosophy.