从5000户企业存货指数看我国经济周期波动

Research on Cyclical Fluctuation of China's Economy:Based on the Inventory Index of 5000 Enterprises

国内外理论和实证研究表明,存货变动具有顺经济周期特征,可以用来监测经济运行。为此,我们基于人民银行5000户企业问卷调查数据,尝试编制了5000户企业产成品存货指数。分析显示,5000户企业存货指数波动基本呈顺经济波动周期特点,与经济波动能够较好地拟合,但存在约1个季度的滞后。从目前情况看,5000户企业产成品存货指数在连续5个季度上升后首次下降,显示企业生产经营扩张态势暂时趋缓。

It has been demonstrated both by domestic and international theory and empirical study that the inventory fluctuation is of pro-cyclical characteristics, which makes it useful for the monitoring of economy operation. The paper tried to compile the inventory index of finished goods for the 5000 enterprises, grounded on the 5000 Enterprises Survey conducted by the People＇s Bank of China. Through the analysis, it is proved that the 5000 Enterprises Inventory Index basically displays the feature of pro-cyclicality and fits the fluctuation of economy with one quarter＇s lag. Currently, the inventory indices shows the signs of declining after five months＇ successive rising, which shows that the expansion of enterprises＇ production is temporarily slowing down.