国库现金转存商业银行对货币供给政策的影响——基于商业银行资产负债框架的扩展分析

The Monetary Supply Policy Effect of the Treasury Funds Depositing in Commercial Banks

随着近年来国库现金的迅速增加,万亿国库现金波动对央行货币供给政策造成显著影响,国库现金管理制度改革日益迫切,国库现金转存商业银行成为我国当前的重要课题。为此,本文构建国库现金转存商业银行的分析框架,研究表明,国库现金转存商业银行仍然会通过商业银行的资产负债结构影响货币供给政策,国库现金协议定期存款促使商业银行定期存款对活期存款比重上升,以此影响商业银行储备水平与信贷能力,同时,国库现金需要商业银行提供抵押品,抵押比例越高,商业银行必须留出越多的储备购买债券,促使国库现金转入商业银行后社会可用资金下降,导致商业银行向中央银行寻求更多的储备资金,从而国库现金增加将引起利率水平上升,并且通过信贷传导机制引起均衡信贷水平发生改变,最终引起货币供给水平产生波动。在平滑国库现金影响的政策选择上,中央银行表现出一定的被动性,通过加强监管、选择抵押品比例等方式是央行调控国库现金影响货币供给政策的重要手段。

In this paper, we modeled the analysis framework to analyze monetary supply policy effect of the treasury funds depositing in commercial banks. As a result, we found that the treasury cash multiplier would influence the commercial bank loans. On the other hand, the mortgage debt required by the treasury funds had negative relationship with the commercial bank loans. Especially, when the mortgage debt exceeded some degree, the commercial bank loans would shrink. When it comes to problem that how to decrease the influence exerted by the treasury funds, the central bank can resort to the reserve ratio of the treasury funds.