财政社会保障支出的就业效应——基于1978～2008年的经验数据

Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Social Security Expenditure on the Employment——Based on the History Datas during the Period of 1978-2008

在分析了社会保障支出影响就业机制的基础上,运用时间序列经济计量技术,对1978～2008年我国就业量、社会保障支出、资本投入、技术进步和工资水平五个变量之间的关系进行了实证研究,发现这五个变量之间存在长期协整关系。进一步的因果关系检验结果显示,社会保障支出、资本投入、技术进步和工资水平对就业量无Granger影响。其政策含义在于,应充分重视这五个变量之间的长期有机联系,控制好包括社会保障支出在内的经济变量,以实现社会保障与就业的良性互动。

This paper analyzes the mechanism of social security expenditure＇s effect on the employment,and empirically tests the relations among the emloyment,fiscal social security expenditure,capital input,technical progress and wages over the period 1978 -2008.There exits a long -term co -integration among 5 varibles and there is no Granger causality from 4 varibles to the emloyment.The policy implication lies on that：we must pay attention to the long-term relation among 5 varibles,and control well the related varible,then the optimum interactive between social security and employment will be realized.