黄河流域水资源可再生能力评价的云模型

Cloud Model of Water Resources Reproducible Ability in the Yellow River Basin

对流域水资源可再生能力进行科学评判,针对评价中存在随机性及模糊性的特征,建立起基于云理论的流域水资源可再生能力综合评价模型。综合考虑水资源条件、社会经济条件及用水条件等11个指标建立水资源可再生能力评价指标体系,利用二元模糊对比法确定各个指标权重,借助云模型定量描述单指标条件下待评价区域水资源可再生能力的等级,并通过模糊变换,确定综合评判等级。云模型将不确定性概念的模糊性和随机性有机地结合在一起,用隶属函数描述评价等级的模糊性,并利用超熵概念考虑隶属度本身存在的随机性,更符合实际评判的情况。应用该模型对黄河流域9个行政分区的水资源可再生能力进行了综合评价,研究表明黄河流域的水资源可再生能力总体上较弱,其中宁夏和内蒙古最弱,其主要原因在于水资源总量短缺且水资源效率低,急需采取相关措施节流开源、提高产业用水效率,特别是需要进一步实施节水灌溉措施,降低农业灌溉定额,从而提高区域的水资源可再生能力。

In order to evaluate water resources reproducible ability efficiently in region,a synthetic assessment model based on the cloud theory is suggested.The paper establishes assessment indexes system,calculates weights of indexes by fuzzy method,and describes evaluation grade of water resources reproducible ability under single index for each districts.The new evaluation model can not only show the fuzzy feature of grade,but also indicate random attribute of the degree by hyper entropy.The paper applies the model into assessment of the water resources reproducible ability of 9 regions in the Yellow River Basin.Results show the water resources reproducible ability in the Yellow River basin is weaker,and the abilities in Ningxia and Inner Mongolia are the weakest.Some measures must be taken to improve the water resources reproducible ability in the Yellow River Basin.