中国区域农村人力资本的估算及其时空特征

Estimation of China's Regional Rural Human Capital and Its Space-time Character

本文运用教育年限累积收益率方法估算了1997-2007年间我国分区域的农村人力资本存量水平,并以此为基础从空间、时间和时空综合的维度分析了其特征。具体结论主要有:农村人力资本存量水平呈现明显的自东向西逐次递降态势;高、中、初等水平的人力资本所占比重呈"梨形"分布状态;从整体上看,农村人力资本存量水平的区域差距在考察期间呈现出明显的缩小趋势;东部地区内的省域除福建外均属于高水平—高增长的"目标模式"和高水平—低增长的"马太模式",长期之中其分布状态可能发生的改变主要为两种既有模式的内部交流;中部地区内的省域较为集中于"马太模式",其未来有向低水平—低增长的"纳克斯模式"扩散的可能趋势;西部地区内的省域主要集中于"纳克斯模式"和低水平—高增长的"成长模式",其未来有可能出现两极分化的趋势,即"成长模式"中的省域逐步实现向"目标模式"的演进,而"纳克斯模式"中的省域仍旧在低点徘徊。

This paper estimated China＇s regional rural human capital during 1997-2007 by the method of accumulated educated year.Then based on the result,we analyzed its character in terms of space,time and integrated space-time.The paper concluded： the accumulated level of rural human capital showed the state of degrading from eastern region to western region;the proportion of advanced,medium and primary human capital showed pyriform distribution;on the whole,regional disparity of rural human capital showed downward trend obviously in research period.All of the provinces in eastern region pertained to ＂target mode＂ with the character of high level and high growth and ＂Matthew mode＂ with the character of high level and low growth except Fujian,and the possible change for this distribution in the long term mainly is the internal exchange between last two modes. Most of the provinces in middle region pertained to ＂Matthew mode＂,and it had a possible trend of scattering to ＂Nurkse mode＂ with the character of low level and low growth in future.Most of the provinces in western region pertained to ＂Nurkse mode＂ and ＂growing mode＂ with the character of low level and high growth,and they may polarize in future;was the provinces pertaining to ＂growing mode＂ evoluted to ＂target mode＂ gradually and the provinces pertaining to ＂Nurkse mode＂ was still at a low point.