基于修正Jones盈余管理模型的财务危机预警研究

Empirical Study of the Financial Distress Prediction:Based on Modified Jones' Earnings Management Model

文章主要考察修正Jones模型是否能引入财务危机预警领域及盈余管理程度对财务危机预警模型预测效果的影响。文章首先将盈余管理理论引入财务危机预警领域,通过单变量分析,初步证实修正Jones模型用于预警的可行性后,再根据四个来自Jones模型的盈余管理因素驱动变量所构成的指标体系分别运用多元判别和逻辑回归分析法基于2006年至2008年中国A股市场新增*ST公司样本及配对样本的前三年数据进行实证研究。结果表明,正常公司和危机公司的操纵性应计利润具有显著差异,可以通过引入修正Jones模型来考察企业财务危机的可能性。

In this paper,we study whether the modified Jones＇ earnings management model is suitable to the financial distress prediction and what effect is caused to financial distress prediction by the degree of earnings management.Firstly,we introduce earnings management theory into the area of financial distress prediction.Secondly,the feasibility of applying the modified Jones＇ earnings management model to financial distress prediction is verified fundamentally through univariate analysis.Thirdly,we conduct an empirical study of four driving indexes coming from Jones＇ model,in which both multivariate discrimination and logistic regression analysis methods are involved.The listed companies marked with ＊ST from 2006 to 2008 are chosen as samples in the empirical study.The research result indicates that there is a significant difference in the discretionary accruals between normal companies and financial distress companies.Additionally,modified Jones＇ model can be applied to the financial distress prediction.