如皋市婴儿死亡发展变化分析与预测

Analysis and forecast the change of infant mortality in Rugao

【目的】研究婴儿死亡发展变化的特征与规律,预测婴儿死亡率发展变化的方向与趋势,探讨进一步降低婴儿死亡率的关键措施。【方法】对2001—2008年如皋市婴儿死亡监测资料进行动态数列分析。【结果】2001—2008年间婴儿死亡率逐年下降,平均发展水平为8.38‰,平均增长量为7.6×104,平均发展速度为0.93,平均增长速度为0.07。先天畸形、出生窒息死亡专率呈正增长,肺炎、意外死亡、早产和低出生体重死亡专率呈负增长。随着时间的推移,婴儿死亡率呈下降趋势,肺炎、出生窒息死亡专率呈上升趋势,先天畸形呈直线趋势,意外窒息、早产和低出生体重呈线性下降趋势。预测2010、2011、2015年婴儿死亡率分别为4.93‰、4.49‰、3.07‰。【结论】导致婴儿死亡率下降的直接原因是肺炎、意外死亡、早产和低出生体重死亡专率的下降。积极防治先天畸形、出生窒息是进一步降低婴儿死亡率的关键措施,继续防治肺炎、意外窒息是防止婴儿死亡率反弹的有效措施。

【Objective】 To study the change of infant mortality and forecast the change tendency,then explore key measures to reduce the infant mortality. 【Method】 Analysis the data of infant mortality in Rugao from 2001 to 2008. 【Results】 The infant mortality rate decreased year by year from 2001 to 2008.The average reduction rate was 8.38‰,the average growth was-7.6×10-4,the average growth speed was 0.93,the average growth rate was-0.07.The mortality rate of congenital malformation and birth suffocates grew,but the mortality rate of pneumonia,accidental death,premature delivery and low birth weight reduced.With the lapse of time,the infant mortality reduced.The infant mortality of pneumonia and birth suffocates was on the rise.The rate of congenital malformation didn＇t change.However,the rate of accidental asphyxia,premature delivery and low birth weight showed linear declining trend.Then the infant mortality rate would be predicted 4.93 ‰,4.49 ‰,3.07 ‰ in 2010,2011,2015. 【Conclusions】 The immediate cause which lead to reduce the infant mortality rate is the reduction of pneumonia,accidental death,premature delivery and low birth weight.To prevent and control the infant mortality positively,the rate of congenital malformation and birth suffocates should be prevented.Continue to fight against the pneumonia and accidental suffocation,infant mortality could be prevented.