我国双目标基础货币规则的设定

The Enactment of China's Based Monetary Policy Rules on Dual Objectives

通过VEC模型研究发现,我国基础货币增长率、实际GDP增长率、CPI、货币流通速度之间具有趋势特征,存在显著相关性,基础货币的可控性与可测性良好且流通速度较为稳定;基础货币对实际GDP增长率偏差的反应程度要高于通货膨胀率偏差,需在规则设定中赋予更大的权重;能实现经济增长和物价稳定双重目标的基础货币规则,其目标值的设定可以是点或是区间,而区间目标既能体现规则的严肃性又能实现操作的灵活性,还能满足货币政策逆风向调节的本质特征。

This article uses VEC model to carry on studies and find that there exist stable trend and significant correlation in the growth rate of base money and real GDP as well as CPI and the speed of money circulation. Base money has good controllability and predictability,and its velocity shows relative stability; The responses of base money to the bias of real GDP growth rate are more greater than inflation bias,this phenomenon indicates that the bias of real GDP growth rate need to give a greater weight when setting the rules; The dual objective of based monetary policy rules can achieve both economic growth and price stability,its target value can be set in a point or an interval ,and the latter not only can reflect the seriousness of the rules ,but also can achieve the flexibility of operation,and even can meet the reverse cycle regulation which is the essential characteristics of monetary policy.