中国外贸顺差的人口因素影响——基于动态GMM法的实证分析

The Study on Population Factor of Chinese Trade Surplus:An Analysis Based on the Dynamic GMM

本文运用Arellano和Bond首创的动态面板数据方法考察了人口年龄结构和人口流动对中国贸易收支的影响。结果表明,差分广义矩法估计所采用的工具变量表现良好,差分方程得到的残差服从AR(1)过程,过度识别条件成立。人口抚育负担的降低、人口的跨地区跨行业流动对贸易顺差有着积极显著的影响。然而,由于劳动力转移方式的差异,不同时间区段的子样本回归结果之间不尽相同。

The paper makes use of dynamic GMM advocated by Arellano Bond to analyze the affect of population factor to trade surplus. The result shows that the decrease of dependency burden and the trans-regional and trans-industrial flow of population have striking and positive effect. However,because of the difference of labor transferring methods,regression results on the sample of the different time periods is not the same. Furthermore,regression results show that eastern region and middle region is similar,western region is not striking.