城市地震的可接受死亡风险研究

Research on acceptable casualty risk level for earthquake disasters in cities

可接受的风险水平是风险管理科学的一个重要内容。应用F-N曲线和ALARP准则研究了有关城市地震人员伤亡的可接受风险决策问题,结合其他各类自然和人为灾害所造成的人员伤亡的实际情况,以及相关领域专家的咨询意见,建议了社会可接受的地震生命风险标准。

This paper presents the study on the acceptable risk level for city＇ s ability in reducing earthquake disasters. The so-called acceptable risk level refers to the threshold of the safety level based on the risk analysis and assessment. The paper mainly defines the acceptable risk levels for the corresponding risk - prevention measures, including failure probability and the consequences of measure failure, such as human casualty and economic loss, etc. In more detailed way, the paper discusseds the methods to use ALARP principle and F - N curve so as to determine the acceptable risk and their applications to the city＇ s ability in reducing earthquake disasters. However, it remains a controversial issue to make accurate assessment of the acceptable risk level in the actual situations, which is still left to be solved through the joint efforts of the governmental departments, engineers, scholars and the public concerned.