淮河流域与疟疾有关因素空间分布及对疟疾疫情的影响

Spatial distribution of social factors related to malaria prevalence and its impact on malaria incidence in the Huaihe River Valley

目的分析淮河流域与疟疾有关社会因素的空间分布状况,探索其对疟疾疫情的影响。方法收集2005年7～9月,采用问卷调查方法获取淮河流域12县(市)50乡(镇)1564户居民2003～2005年社会因素资料,运用ArcGIS8.3软件制作疟疾流行及主要社会因素分布图,采用逐步回归分析法探讨疟疾流行状况与社会因素的关系。结果 2003～2005年12县(市)报告疟疾22520例,其中96.48%来自乡村。使用纱门纱窗(X1)、蚊帐(X2)、蚊香(X3)和灭蚊剂(X4)防止蚊虫叮咬的家庭分别占32.55%、61.51%、81.84%和57.67%,有露宿和(或)室外纳凉习惯(X6)者占25.85%。平均每亩耕地每年使用农药的费用(X5)为21.4元,人均饲养大牲畜(X7)0.3头。纱门纱窗使用率以及蚊帐使用率的高低分布与疟疾发病率的高低存在明显的反一致性,而暴露率的高低分布与疟疾发病率的高低存在明显的一致性。回归分析显示:变量X1-X(3β=-2.128、-1.147、-1.028,P<0.05)与自然对数发病率(Yln)呈负关联,而X(6β=0.888,P<0.01)与Yln呈正关联。结论淮河流域疟疾流行与部分社会因素存在较明显的关联,加强引导乡村居民养成良好的生活习惯,有助于阻断疟疾传播,是既经济安全,又持久有效的疟防措施之一。

Aim To analyze the spatial distribution of social factors related to malaria prevalence and its impact on malaria incidence. Methods Data of social factors asseicated with malaria prevalence from 2003 to 2005 concerning 1 564 hoouseholds covering 50 townships in 12 counties in the Huaihe River Valley were gained and surveyed from July to September in 2005 using questionnaires. AreGIS8.3 software and stepwise regression analysis were used to make thematic maps and analyze the correlation of malaria prevalence with some social factors, respectively. Results There were 22 520 malaria cases reported from 12 counties during 2003 to 2005 with 96.48% of the eases were in rural areas. The rates of family using door-window curtains （Xl）,bednet（X2）,repellent ineense（X3）,inseeticide（X4）to prevent mosquito from bitings were 32.55% ,61.51%, 81.84% and 57.67% ,respectively. The rate of sleeping or chatting outdoors in local residents was 25.85%. In general,21.4 yuan per MU were spent for pesticide and 0.3 head of livestock per people was raised. Anticonsistency spatial distribution was found between X1,X2 and malaria prevalence （Y）,while consistency was found between X6 and Y. Regression analysis indicated that： variables of X 1 - X3 （ β =-2.128, -1.147, - 1.028, P〈0.05 ） were negatively correlated with natural logarithms rate（Yln）,while X6（β=0.888,P〈0.01） was positively correlated with Yln. Conclusion The prevalence of malarai in rural area is obviously associated with some social factors in the Huaihe River Valley. Guidance for rural residents to have good habits should be enhanced to help interrupting malaria transmission. This measure may be one of the economical, safe, lasting and effective malaria control measures.