盘龙河流域近45年气温和降水变化特征分析

An Analysis of the Temperature and Rainfall Variation Characteristics in Panlong River Basin over the Last 45Years

应用线性趋势法、方差分析和M-K检验法就盘龙河流域1961—2005年的气温和降水进行了变化趋势、年际和年代际变化及突变特征分析.结果表明：该流域近45a来年均温呈上升趋势,与其他季节相比,冬季增温趋势显著,幅度最大,气温倾向率为0.232℃/10a;年降水量与季节降水量变化趋势不明显,降水量倾向率均未通过95%的信度检验;气温和降水量年际和年代际变化显著;气候突变时段多集中于20世纪60至70年代和90年代以后,主要表现为上世纪60至70年代的降温突变和降水量增加突变,90年代以后以增温突变和降水量减少突变为主.

By using trend line analysis,quadrad analysis and Mann-Kendll test,the paper analyzes variation tendency,interannual and interdecadal variation and catastrophes of the temperature and rainfall in Panlong River Basin based on monthly observational date（1961-2005a）at Malipo meteorological Station.Results manifest：（1）the annual mean temperature tends to rise,especially in winter the temperature rising is more remarkable（the change rate was 0.232℃/10a）.（2）the variation tendency of the annual and seasonal total rainfall is not remarkable and the variation rate can not pass 95%of the Reliability Test.（3） the interannual and interdecadal variation of temperature and rainfall are remarkable.（4）The catastrophes of temperature and rainfall took place in 1960-1970sand 1990s,which was reflected in the catastrophes of temperature decreasing and the rainfall increasing in 1960-1970s,but in 1990s,the situation is opposite.