危机后的全球金融中心

Global Financial Centres after the Crisis

金融中心之间的国际竞争极为激烈，而全球金融危机将加速其格局的改变。美国和欧盟的金融市场仍旧提供着全球近四分之三的金融服务，但危机之后。它们在许多市场领域的活动都明显萎缩了。新兴金融市场，尤其是亚洲．在过去几年内迅速增长，并且开始加速它们对传统金融中心的追赶步伐。北京、首尔、深圳、上海和迪拜等新兴金融中心自2007年以来国际排名迅速提高，在竞争力水平方面，首尔上升了42％，北京27％，孟买22％，上海16％。关于金融中心的未来竞争态势，我们总结出了四个重要的影响因素：第一，由于既有的市场优势和良好的经济环境，伦敦、纽约、香港和新加坡等传统全球金融中心在危机后仍是全球金融的集聚地；第二，长期来看，新兴金融中心可能在建设市场环境的规模和广度方面取得成功，从而进入全球金融中心的第一集团，而此次危机可能加速这一趋势；第三，地区和区域性金融中心可能会寄希望于市场参与者与政策制定者重新将注意力放到国内市场，然而这种优势很可能不会持续太长时间；第四，良好的监管体系是金融中心的重要竞争优势，那些不遵循国际监管规则的金融中心将面临越来越大的国际政治压力和指责。

International competition between financial centres is fierce,and the financial crisis is set to accelerate the pace of change.US and EU financial markets continue to provide around three-quarters of global financial services,albeit,after the crisis,at substantially lower overall levels of market activity in many market segments.Emerging financial markets,especially in Asia,have grown strongly in past years and are set to speed up their catch-up process.Emerging financial centres such as Beijing,Seoul,Shenzhen,Shanghai,and Dubai have improved their global ranking strongly since 2007,raising their competitiveness ratings by 42% for Seoul,27% for Beijing,22% for Mumbai,and 16% for Shanghai.Going forward,four drivers of financial centre competitiveness after the crisis can be identified:1.Big is beautiful-and will remain so.London,New York,Hong Kong,and Singapore are set to remain strongholds of global finance after the crisis,building on existing market strength and favorable economic conditions.2.Towards a multi-polar financial industry.In the long-run,emerging financial centres are likely to succeed in establishing the scale and scope in their market environment that will help them advance into the top group of global locations.The crisis may accelerate this trend.3.National focus as transitory advantage for smaller centres.Local and regional financial market places may hope for continued relevance owing to the re-focusing of market participants and policymakers on their national markets.However,this tailwind will likely be of limited duration.4.Good regulation as a competitive advantage.Providing a good regulatory framework will be a key determinant of competitiveness going forward.Financial centres not compliant with international rules are faced with increasing political pressure and stigmatization.