国际资本流动悖论:一个文献综述

International Capital Flow Paradox:A Survey

20世纪以来，国际资本流动方向出现了逆转，由先前的从富国向穷国的顺流，转变为由穷国向富国的逆流。国际资本逆流与标准经济理论的预测完全相悖。本文对关于国际资本流动悖论的理论假说和经验研究作了一个系统的文献综述。首先，建立一个简明的开放经济条件下的新古典增长模型，分析导致国际资本流动悖论的潜在因素。其次。从发展中国家在人力资本、制度完善、资本市场发育程度和外资利用能力方面存在的不足，以及国际货币金融体系和亚洲金融危机的消极影响等角度，对国际资本流动悖论的理论假说进行深入阐述和系统分析。最后，作评论性总结。

Since the new century,the direction of international capital flow has reversed,shifting from the downstream flow from rich countries to poor countries,to the uphill flow from the poor to the rich.The uphill flow of international capital is totally opposite to the prediction of standard economic theory.The paper gives a systematic survey on theories and empirical researches in international capital flow paradox.Firstly,the paper establishes a simple open neo-classical growth model,and analyzes potential factors causing the uphill flows of capital.Secondly,the author takes an in-depth and systematic analysis on theories about the capital flow paradox,in terms of deficiencies in developing countries,such as,human resources,institutional quality,development of capital market and foreign capital absorptive capabilities,and negative impacts of international monetary and financial architecture and Asian financial crisis.Finally,the paper presents concluding remarks and policy implications.