云南近百年来温度雨量的变化特征分析

Analysis on Variation Characteristics of Temperature and Rainfall in Yunnan in the Last 100 Years

用气候倾向率、Morlet小波方法,对云南10个站1901-2007年的年降水和平均温度资料分析表明:100年来云南平均增温速率为0.031℃/10a。近50年来全省平均增温速率为0.242℃/10a,略高于全国的增温,增温最大的是滇中的昆明、滇南的普洱,分别为0.442℃/10a和0.409℃/10a,并且西部明显高于东部。100年来云南年降水呈减少趋势,平均速率为7.288mm/10a,近50年来,年降水量减少平均速率为6.66mm/10a。但云南降水的区域分异非常明显,云南的东部、中部降水减少;而滇西北和滇东南地区降水增加。云南气温明显的年代际变化是32年,发生了3次突变。年降水呈明显的年代际及年际振荡,具有16～32年、4～8年周期。

By methods of climatic trend rate and Morlet wavelet transform,temperature and rainfall data of ten stations of Yunnan from 1901 to 2007 are analyzed,and the average incalescence rate is shown as 0. 031 ℃ / 10a. The average incalescence rate of the province is 0. 242 ℃ /10a in the last 50 years,which is slightly higher than that of China. Temperature increase most in Kuming in central Yunnan and Pu＇er of south Yunnan are 0. 442 ℃ /10a and 0. 409 ℃ /10a respectively,and temperature of the west area is obviously higher than that of the east area. There is a decreasing trend in annual precipitation of Yunnan in the past 100 years,and the average rate is 7. 288 mm/10a,but in the past 50 years,the average rate is decreased to 6. 66 mm/10a as a result of the decrease of annual precipitation. Annual precipitation of Yunnan,decreases in the east and central areas,but increases in the northwest and southeast areas,are of obvious regional differentiation. Obvious decadal variation of the province is 32 years and three generally remarkable mutations happened in the past 100 years. As to the annual precipitation,it mainly has a decadal oscillation of 4 - 8 years and an annual oscillation of 16 - 32 years.